Almost by default, Texas governor George W.
Bush, born on third base as the third-generation heir of
Prescott Bush, is about to be elected President of the United
States. The closest challenger was Vice President Albert Gore,
Jr., also born on third base as a second-generation offspring in
the Gore political dynasty.
Earlier this year, we saw the Democratic presidential nomination
handed to Al Gore on a silver platter. There had been eight
years of unprecedented economic prosperity - the sun was
shining, the crowds were cheering, the Presidency was his to
lose…
And he did.
But let's put politics aside, and talk about gold. What effect
on gold could this election potentially have?
In the good old days (William Jennings Bryan’s campaign of 1896
comes to mind), candidates would put forth, often at length,
their stands on monetary policy, including gold and silver.
Today, political beliefs are either derived from taking a poll
of popular opinion, or they don’t exist at all. So, we can only
roughly determine a candidate’s potential effect on the precious
metals markets.
Traditionally, the Democrats are considered the less fiscally
responsible party, and when they’re in office, it’s a good idea
to own some gold. Worldwide gold markets were in turmoil during
the Kennedy-Johnson 1960’s, and gold surged again during the
Carter administration. Clinton was the rare exception whose
Democratic administration went against expectations big-time,
driving down inflation and interest rates while the stock market
soared.
But Al Gore’s more free-spending tendencies seem inherently
inflationary, which usually means it takes more dollars to buy
the same amount of gold. So a case can be made that a Gore
administration, if it could possibly follow through on all Al’s
promises, would favor inflation and higher gold prices.
In that same tradition, Republicans are seen as the fiscally
conservatives foes of inflation, their fights for tax cuts
notwithstanding. But this year we have the additional fact of
Bush’s lack of experience, and seeming lack of knowledge, of
national economic affairs.
The gold markets will let us know soon enough. Currently at a
13-month low in price, and within 5% of a twenty-year low, gold
has been in a 'frozen slide' for most of this calendar year. The
most remarkable thing is Gold’s placid behavior in light of
current events - a U. S. Presidential election is upon us, the
Mideast seems to be on the brink of war, oil prices have
remained solidly over $30 a barrel for months now, yet looking
at a gold chart is like watching the EKG of a patient who is
slipping into a coma.
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But putting gold aside, and climbing atop our soapbox, let us
say that this is arguably the worst presidential slate the
American electorate has faced in living memory. And the shame of
it is, for the Republicans, that many of the 40- and
50-somethings whom have never voted Republican, are dying to do
so.
Just to take one example, many Boomers couldn't agree more with
the Republican platform concerning taxes - that they should be
lower for those of us who currently pay the most.
Winston Churchill said that one who was not a radical when young
had no heart, and one who was not conservative when older had no
brain. The huge Baby Boomer generation, responsible for the
tumultuous “youthquake” of the 1960’s, is now older, settled,
and more concerned with their family's well-being than the more
outward-looking causes of their youth.
And though many boomers do vote Republican these days, many more
who are in ideological agreement with much that the party stands
for, do not. Nor will they, as long as the party seems to be run
by Dick Cheney’s peers, rather than George W. Bush’s generation.
Who gets the votes? Pat Buchanan will draw the
America-first-last-and-always right-wing fringe, and Ralph Nader
appeals to the anti-corporate, safe-at-any-cost left-wing
fringe. Al Gore draws the complacent and the Democratic
faithful, and George W. Bush will have the votes of the
disgusted and the staunch Republicans.
And John McCain, who would have mopped the floor with any of
these guys, isn't even in the running.
The thin choice in this year’s Presidential race just reinforces
the fact that the huge number of middle-class and affluent
Boomers need their own political party, if this is the best the
G.O.P and Dems are willing to offer.
The only question to be answered this Tuesday is, are more
voters complacent or disgusted?
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