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Not unexpectedly, Fed
chairman Ben Bernanke’s decision to sacrifice the dollar in an
attempt to soothe the financial, equities, and housing markets
by cutting the Fed discount rate by 50 basis points had its
effect. The dollar sank against pretty much every currency, with
gold gaining some 3.7% this week alone, ending on Friday some
10% higher for the month so far.
Before September’s slew of worldwide economic and financial
crises hit the fan, we had actually experienced a very sleepy
summer in the gold market. Gold prices in the period of June
through August kept to a narrow 5% range before exploding this
month.
Prior to this month, gold traded above $700 only on nine
previous occasions - seven days in 1980, and for a short two
days in May of 2006. So far this month gold has traded above
$700 for eleven consecutive days, and we’re still counting.
The dollar reached new historic lows against the Euro, trading
at $1.41 per on Friday. It also sank below the level of the
Canadian dollar for the first time in over 30 years. In fact,
the last time that the US dollar traded at par (or worse) with
the Canadian dollar was during Gerald Ford’s presidency. Does
anybody today remember the “Whip Inflation Now” (WIN) campaign
of 1976?
But gold’s rally over the past few weeks was not simply an
instance of the dollar teetering. Gold so far this year is not
only up some 15% in dollar terms, but 8% in euros, 10% in yen,
and even 3% versus the relatively strong Indian rupee.
Barron’s online edition this week cites Citigroup’s John Hill as
saying:
"After languishing during the initial phase of the credit
crunch, gold has reasserted its safe-haven status. The equities
anticipated the move, and have fully, finally participated.”
Hill made the point that gold prices are rising against many
currencies, which signals a true gold rally rather than a simple
dollar correction, and went on to say that "If gold only rises
as the "anti-dollar" and is flat in euro, yen and rupee terms,
then it is not a true rally from the perspective of the buyers
that control the market."
All eyes of course were on Ben Bernanke, whose fifty basis point
rate cut gave a shot in the arm to the equities market, and also
gold prices. It was a bold and dramatic move, and it may lead to
“Helicopter Ben” henceforth being known as “Bubble Ben.”
All this occurred on the week of Alan Greenspan’s book release,
his own write-up of his life heading up the Federal Reserve. I
am not going to pretend to have read the Maestro’s book. But for
those who will read it, there may be some surprises.
Alan Beattie, who supposedly has read the book, wrote in this
weekend’s Financial Times,
“The appeal of Greenspan’s memoirs, “The Age of Turbulence,”
should be relatively broad – they are at least more lucid than
his famously opaque prose while in office. But what emerges from
the book is that even he, who knew so much more than most, knew
far less than most supposed.”
Mr. Beattie is referring, of course, to the prior spell cast by
this enormous intellect, through his public statements during
his reign - the mysterious, sometimes circular, and always
oracular constructions of the English language that Chairman
Greenspan was known for.
Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan, as chairmen of the Federal
Reserve Bank, have held the most powerful unelected position in
the world – steward of the US dollar. And because today’s dollar
is a psychological construct without any grounding in gold, the
Chairman of the Fed by his very deeds and words, give the dollar
its definition, life, and value.
Obviously, the Fed chairmanship is not an easy job. Arguably the
task of captaining a worldwide fiat currency is ultimately
impossible, because eventually, on someone’s watch, the whole
house of cards will collapse.
The last few weeks have certainly pointed up the fragility of
today’s financial structures. Jim Kunstler, speaking
particularly about the securitization and global marketing of
subprime mortgages in his “Back to School” essay of August 27th,
said,
“The damage to global structured finance has been done, and it
can be stated rather precisely: a widespread recognition that
it's not possible to get something for nothing, after all. And
that when you hold a lot of paper that was gotten for nothing,
and put it up for sale, nothing will be offered for it. What a
surprise.”
“The task of people holding power now in the finance sector
(which itself may be a conceit at this point) is to manage the
rapid dissolution of hallucinated wealth in such a way that as
few people as possible notice that x-trillions in dollar
denominated pixels have vanished from the hard drives. Sooner or
later, though, millions of shlubs dependent on pension checks,
or annuities, or monthly payouts of one kind or another will
notice that something has stopped landing in the mail box.”
But whatever happens, we wish Mr. Bernanke the best in his
efforts. And by holding gold, we insure ourselves against the
worst.
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