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2008 was a terrible
year for most every financial asset, but gold’s return of 4.31%
beat most of the alternatives. Unfortunately, 2008’s
unprecedented surge in bullion demand was not met with adequate
supply for the average US investor.
Burying gold in your backyard wasn’t the worst thing to do with
your money in 2008. Demand for physical gold skyrocketed as the
search for a safe haven became everyone’s concern. But glitches
in the gold bullion supply chain emerged, and it became a
commonplace that some monkey business was going on.
Greg McCoach, publisher of the “Mining Speculator” newsletter,
is cited on John Rubino’s Dollarcollapse.com website’s “Best
Quotes of December 2008.” . Speaking of the Gold Rush of 2008,
he says:
“Everyone wants the same thing: To buy gold! But there’s a
problem. A big problem. For the past several weeks, bullion
dealers around the world, including myself, have been restricted
in how much gold we can order from our distributors.”
So far, he makes a good point. Production of small investment
coins and bars did not keep up with the tremendous demand of the
last few months of 2008. In the third quarter alone, investment
demand for gold was over 1,100 tonnes according to the World
Gold Council. That figure represents about half of the amount of
gold mined worldwide in twelve months. Further, it wasn’t until
October, November, and December of 2008 that demand really went
ballistic. Fourth quarter gold investment demand figures are
likely to reflect an even greater increase.
And it’s not like you can open up a few new gold mines in short
order, and start cranking the stuff out. Mining is a long-term,
capital-intensive enterprise, and the easy gold pickings around
the world have already been found over the past few millennia.
Yet the physical gold being taken off the market has to come
from somewhere, and at some price.
Thus, we are bullish on gold. We were bullish back in 1999 when
we launched this website. Back then, times were good, equities
were booming, and gold sold for a few hundred dollars per ounce.
Today, things have changed, to say the least. And even though
gold has more than tripled from turn-of-the-century levels, it
still sells for only a few hundred dollars per ounce. So we
remain bullish.
But back to Mr. McCoach, who we interrupted mid-statement. He
goes on to say:
“The distributors are allocating gold orders to dealers because
the mints have had to cut back on – and even completely halt –
production of gold bars and coins due to boisterous demand and
the shortage of supplies that I just mentioned.”
Let’s examine that “cut back” and “halt” supposition. Start with
China, which produced over 200,000 of its 1-ounce gold Panda
coins. And when gold bullion demand accelerated in late 2008,
the Royal Canadian Mint abandoned production of many numismatic
products and fractional coins to concentrate on the production
of one-ounce gold Maple Leafs. The Perth Mint in Australia
likewise suspended most of its numismatic production to make way
for record production of its bullion Kangaroo gold coins. The
Pamp Suisse Company, a Swiss refiner of gold and provider of
bullion the world over, shattered all previous production
records in keeping the US and the world supplied with its .9999
pure gold bars in various sizes. And for the first time in
years, tens of thousands of new Krugerrands were brought to the
US from the South Africa Mint.
Our own US Mint more than quintupled its production of gold
Eagles, turning out 794,000 1-ounce pieces versus 2007’s mintage
of 147,500. Also, US Mint production of silver Eagles in 2008
was the highest number since the program began in 1986.
However, those numbers fell decidedly short of demand.
No doubt there will soon be a Treasury ceremony at which Mint
officials will receive commendations and bonuses for increasing
production of bullion coins in 2008, even though about half as
many gold Eagles were made last year than in 1998 or 1999. But
in the real world, where ordinary American citizens attempt to
buy our country’s most trusted form of gold coins, their efforts
were simply inadequate.
The issue goes deeper than simple inconvenience for bullion
buyers, and, yes, bullion dealers. The persistent shortages of
silver Eagles for most of 2008, and gold Eagles for the final
four months of 2008, engendered a mind-set among the precious
metals crowd that supply was simply not available while precious
metals prices were tumbling. In short, they saw conspiracy,
manipulation, and reasons to question even the legitimacy of the
US Comex market itself.
Increasingly, the perception grew that there are two markets –
the ‘paper’ market, wherein prices were cheap, and the physical
market, where tight supplies and outrageous markups meant that
the ‘little guy,’ defined as anyone lacking the means to buy
gold or silver bars by the truckload, found that the forms of
gold and silver that he or she could afford cost excessively
more than ‘paper’ prices.
This sort of thinking, that there is a dichotomy in the
gold/dollar markets, is anathema to the Treasury’s role in
defending the dollar against all enemies. People simply have
less faith in dollars if they cannot be spent on US
Treasury-produced gold and silver coins at reasonable premiums
over spot market prices.
Providing convertibility of dollars to gold was once the main
job of the United States Treasury. Today, the dollar is no
longer convertible to gold at a fixed rate as it was during the
days of the gold standard, but putting obstacles in people’s
paths as they try to convert dollars to gold at near the
prevailing market rate leads to distrust of the whole system of
money itself. Mr. McCoach’s confused statement about supply
chains and demand factors is typical, and many Internet
commentaries and talk forums on the subject of gold show even
less familiarity with market realities. But people read them,
and often believe.
A free flow of gold and silver bullion coins from our Mint would
do much to allay those public fears and confusion.
As Tim Geithner prepares to take the helm at Treasury, we hope
that he considers the importance of the Congressionally mandated
role of the US gold Eagle programs to provide bullion choices
for the US public “in quantities sufficient to meet public
demand.”
Any excuses from the Mint for its failure to meet that demand
are simply not acceptable. Our understanding is that the outside
vendors providing silver and gold blanks for the Eagle programs
find the physical specifications (issues other than their
authorized weight and fineness) for those blanks to be
unnecessarily finicky for what is, after all, only a bullion
coin. Production, particularly of silver Eagles, has
consequently been constricted for nearly a year now. The Mint
has also cited a shortage of acceptable blanks as the cause of
gold Eagles being allocated to its distributors over the past
few months. This must end.
Mr. Geithner will start his new job with a lot of challenges
before him, but this one is relatively simple. It should be
dealt with swiftly and decisively.
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